Bold Buckeye
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 25/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |