4
Kettle Coalmine
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 58
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |