2
Marquitos M
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 9-9 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |