8
May Mayhem
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 29/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |