3
Red Chili Pepper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |