6
Red Head Kid
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |