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Social History
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |