9
Thedayofthegrey
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 23/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |