Jace
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 8 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |