IvyArcIvyArc
1

Lucy's First Song

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 23

Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 65 par6/10C6OR 65C6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 41 · 6f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 41 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 37 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 37 par2/04C6OR 37C6 @ Thistledown 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 25 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 25 parC6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 29 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 29 par20/06C6OR 29C6 @ Thistledown 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 30 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 30 parC6 @ Thistledown 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 24 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 24 par23/07C6OR 24C6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 22 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 22 parC6 @ Thistledown 16/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 23 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 23 par16/09C6OR 23projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-08-13Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-07-23Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-07-07Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?9th6th+3
2026-05-13Thistledown?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1013/0523/0716/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
02/03/20268th25/10%0%0.00
02/04/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
13/05/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
20/06/20269th9/276%0%-0.76
07/07/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
23/07/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
13/08/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
16/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20