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3

Tap Dancing Dan

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 97

Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS13/08C6C6 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 30 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 30 par27/08C6OR 30C6 @ Thistledown 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 94 par16/09C6OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-08-27Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-08-13Thistledown?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0827/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 27/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -10.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
27/08/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
16/09/20265th12/137%33%-0.04