5
Ultissimo
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -16.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |