Cali Cruiser
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 04/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 07/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |