6
Danza Magic
7yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 51
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |