Emerson Jones
6yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2024-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-08-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2024-07-11 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2024-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 14/05/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 03/06/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 24/06/2024 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 11/07/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 01/08/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 26/08/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 28/10/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 18/12/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |