5
Hollaback
4yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |