Miss Springsteen
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |