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5

Biondettisnitemare

4yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 66

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thistledown 05/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 63 · 6f 117 · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 63 par5/08C8OR 63C8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 67 · 1m 115 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 67 parC8 @ Thistledown 25/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 64 · 6f 112 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 64 par25/09C8OR 64C8 @ Thistledown 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 61 · 6f 115 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 61 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 57 par21/10C5OR 57C5 @ Mahoning Valley 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 60 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/12/2025 · OR 64 par23/12C5OR 64C8 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 66 par15/09C8OR 66projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?7th7th0
2026-08-26Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2025-12-23Mahoning Valley?9th6th+3
2025-11-20Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-21Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2025-10-10Thistledown?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0810/1023/1215/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 34/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength57%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/08/20253rd9/488%33%-0.55
02/09/20255th9/488%0%-0.88
25/09/20254th7/163%40%-0.23
10/10/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
21/10/20252nd5/493%83%-0.10
20/11/20252nd7/163%86%+0.23
23/12/20259th9/153%0%-0.53
26/08/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18
15/09/20267th5/174%0%-0.74