Cat's Cradle
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |