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4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 34

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 08/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 37 · 1m 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 37 par8/12C6OR 37C6 @ Mahoning Valley 29/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 38 · 6f 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 38 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 22 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 22 par30/03C6OR 22C6 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 26 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 26 parC5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 28 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 28 par11/05C5OR 28C5 @ Thistledown 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 33 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 33 parC5 @ Thistledown 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 35 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 35 par1/07C5OR 35C5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 36 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 36 parC5 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 38 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 38 par15/09C5OR 38projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2026-08-05Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-07-01Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-06-15Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-05-11Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-04-20Thistledown?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1220/041/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20253rd5/493%71%-0.22
29/12/20256th2/189%17%-0.73
30/03/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
20/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
11/05/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
15/06/20265th16/116%33%+0.18
01/07/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
05/08/20265th14/126%20%-0.06
15/09/20261st20/10%100%+1.00