2
Just Runnin
3yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 2 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength88%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-12-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · tight 82/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |