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6

Ron Dah Lou

5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 61

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 44 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 44 par3/10C5OR 44C5 @ Mahoning Valley 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 45 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 11/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 45 par11/12C5OR 45C5 @ Mahoning Valley 24/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/12/2025 · OR 46 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 12/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 48 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 48 par12/01C5OR 48C8 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 52 · 6f 119 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 52 parC8 @ Thistledown 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 57 par12/05C8OR 57C8 @ Thistledown 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 58 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 65 · 5f110y Fas 119 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 65 par26/08C8OR 65projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-06-02Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-05-12Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-04-20Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-01-12Mahoning Valley?1st-2th+3
2025-12-24Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1024/1212/0526/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20252nd1/195%67%-0.28
23/10/20254th11/271%57%-0.14
11/12/20254th12/137%50%+0.13
24/12/20252nd7/163%83%+0.20
12/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
20/04/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
12/05/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
02/06/20264th9/153%50%-0.03
26/08/20265th9/276%0%-0.76