5
Goosebumps
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/04/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |