4
Honduras Passion
5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |