7
Midnight Wonder
6yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |