6
Not Today
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 17/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |