1
Riobella
6yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 90
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 15/03/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |