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2

Sassy Walker

6yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 80

Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairmount Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 85 par4/10C8OR 85C8 @ Hawthorne 02/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Turfway Park 18/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark18/12/2025 · OR 85 par18/12C8OR 85C8 @ Turfway Park 15/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 87 · 6f 121 · beat its mark15/01/2026 · OR 87 parC7 @ Turfway Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 88 · 6f 120 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 88 par5/03C7OR 88C5 @ Mahoning Valley 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 86 · 6f 124 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Thistledown 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f 119 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 89 par30/07C5OR 89C7 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 80 par15/09C5OR 80projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-08-27Thistledown?1st3rd−2
2026-07-30Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-03-30Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0
2026-03-05Turfway Park?4th6th−2
2026-01-15Turfway Park?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/0130/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength79%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20252nd11/1094%75%-0.19
02/11/20253rd3/184%75%-0.09
18/12/20252nd9/276%89%+0.13
15/01/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
05/03/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
30/03/20262nd11/1094%75%-0.19
30/07/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
27/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
15/09/20261st11/893%100%+0.07