7
Quick Recovery
5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |