1
Special Beach
9yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |