6
Starcourt
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |