5
Thee New Beginning
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |