4
Twilight Vision
7yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |