2
Echo Valley
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 2 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 82% | -0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |