IvyArcIvyArc
6

Honor And Obay

3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 6 · OR 73

Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Mahoning Valley 23/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 5f110y 118 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 51 par23/02C9OR 51C9 @ Mahoning Valley 09/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 56 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 26/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 116 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 67 par26/03C5OR 67C5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 116 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f 115 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 73 par11/05C5OR 73C5 @ Thistledown 17/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 115 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 72 par12/08C8OR 72C5 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 115 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Thistledown 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 71 par17/09C5OR 71projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-08-27Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-08-12Thistledown?2nd5th−3
2026-06-17Thistledown?7th7th0
2026-05-11Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-04-09Mahoning Valley?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/029/0412/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
09/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
26/03/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
09/04/20262nd13/891%83%-0.08
11/05/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
17/06/20267th9/153%0%-0.53
12/08/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
27/08/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
17/09/20264th15/261%40%-0.21