3
My Kinda Party
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |