1
Unfaithful Rose
3yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 1 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |