4
Dolce Marie
6yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 55
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |