7
Kat Trax
6yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 66
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |