2
Tale Of The Lyon
7yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |