6
Maori Nuevo
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Antonia - Monte · 1m 2f 178y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Vincennes | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Cordemais | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |