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13

Mario De La Vallee

4yo Colt · 9-13

Vincennes · Prix Antonia - Monte · 1m 2f 178y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Laval 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR - · 1m6f36y 13225/09C?C0 @ Vincennes 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 132C0 @ Vincennes 05/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f178y Std 1325/12C?3 @ Vincennes 07/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f178y Std 139C0 @ Vincennes 25/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m2f178y Std 13925/02C?C0 @ Vincennes 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 1393 @ Vincennes 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13915/053C0 @ Vincennes 29/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13929/05C?projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Laval?0
2026-05-29Vincennes?7th7th0
2026-05-15Vincennes34th4th0
2026-04-21Vincennes?1st1st0
2026-02-25Vincennes?1st1st0
2026-02-07Vincennes35th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/097/0215/0529/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20252nd13/891%94%+0.03
04/11/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
05/12/20252nd4/596%86%-0.10
07/02/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
25/02/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
21/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
15/05/20264th3/184%70%-0.14
29/05/20267th12/137%40%+0.03