10
Memphis Ellis
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Antonia - Monte · 1m 2f 178y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Cavaillon | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Chartres | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |