2
Merry Christmas
4yo Colt · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Antonia - Monte · 1m 2f 178y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Cabourg | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Cabourg | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Agen | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 15/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |