16
Little Boy
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Daphne - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#2
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Mauquenchy | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Reims | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caen | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 9-18 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 87% | -0.05 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 73% | -0.15 |
| 16/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 58% | -0.30 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 94% | +0.36 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 93% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.25 |
| 10/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |