11
Lord Mil
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Daphne - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-11 | Chartres | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-28 | Laval | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-18 | Pornichet | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 4-18 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 04/10/2024 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/08/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 24/03/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |