4
Kelvalse Castelets
6yo Mare · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Nysa - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Vichy | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-28 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Caen | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Chartres | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-02-02 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 14/09/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 29/09/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/12/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 28/12/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/04/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |