1
Kempel De Guez
6yo Gelding · 10-1
Vincennes · Prix Nysa - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Vincennes | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 6 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-01 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Enghien | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | La Capelle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Les Sables | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 27/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.21 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |