3
Kepi Rouge
6yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Nysa - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#11
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Craon | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Enghien | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Enghien | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Graignes | 7 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Le Mans | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 23/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/11/2025 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/12/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 22/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 85% | +0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |