2
Komedie Somolli
6yo Mare · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Nysa - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Vincennes | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-05 | Mauquenchy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lisieux | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Caen | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Laval | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Caen | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |